BY NATALIE KEMPKEY, ET.AL.
Natalie Kempkey is an Industry Economist at the Energy Information Administration. She has served on the Executive Council of NCAC-USAEE Board for four years and also as Membership Chair at USAEE.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will earn about $323 billion in net oil export revenues in 2020. If realized, it would be the lowest in 18 years. Lower crude oil prices and lower export volumes drive the expected decrease in export revenues.
Crude oil prices have fallen as a result of the imbalance caused by lower global demand for petroleum products in face of responses to COVID-19. The benchmark Brent crude oil spot price fell from an annual average of $71 per barrel (b) in 2018, to $64/b in 2019, and EIA expects Brent to average $41/b in 2020.(1)
OPEC petroleum production averaged 36.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018 and fell to 34.5 million b/d in 2019; EIA expects OPEC production to decline a further 3.9 million b/d to average 30.7 million b/d in 2020.
OPEC earned an estimated $595 billion in net oil export revenues(2) in 2019, less than half of the estimated record high of $1.2 trillion earned in 2012. EIA expects a decline in 2020 net oil export revenue because of continued voluntary curtailments and low crude oil prices.
Follow the link to read a more detailed discussion of OPEC revenue in EIA This Week in Petroleum.
(1) Based on forecasts in EIA’s October 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
(2) EIA based its OPEC revenues estimate on forecast petroleum liquids production—including crude oil, condensate, and natural gas plant liquids—and forecast values of OPEC petroleum consumption and crude oil prices.