Challenges with Energy Forecasting

  • 20 Apr 2021
  • 2:00 PM - 3:30 PM
  • Zoom

Participation in this panel is included with conference registration. Please register on the main event webpage. This panel webpage provides more details on this specific panel, and allows attendees to save event details to their online calendars. 

2:00 - 3:00 PM:  Challenges with Energy Forecasting

    3:00 - 3:30 PM:  Breakout Sessions

    • CONTEXT:

    • This panel will explore how the practice of Energy Forecasting is changing in the face of greater uncertainty over the pace & nature of the energy transition, as well as changing demands from executives/policymakers. Attendees will learn from the panelists how changes in policy, technology and behaviors are shaping the way public- and private-sector energy forecasts are created and used. 

    • QUESTIONS: 

      • How have analytics/forecasting methods changed in response to changing demands from executives/policymakers and greater uncertainty over energy transition? 

      • What are key uncertainties (policy, behavior, technology) affecting energy forecasting? 

      • How do analytics tools need to change to keep up with the changing landscape of energy forecasting?

    • MODERATOR:

      • Aqeel Adenwala, Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc. 

    • SPEAKERS:

      • Angelina LaRose, Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis, US DOE-EIA

      • Michael Cohen,  Chief US Economist and Head of Oil and Refining BP

      • Charles Rossmann, Forecasting and Model Development Manager, Southern Company

    • SPEAKER BIOS:


    Angelina LaRose: Angelina LaRose is the Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis. In this role, Angelina directs EIA’s energy modeling program, which supports EIA’s forecasts and projections. Angelina also manages the topical analyses that EIA produces that span a range of fuels and activities.

    Angelina has worked in support of EIA’s mission for nearly 20 years. From 2016 to 2019, Angelina was the Director of the Office of Integrated and International Energy Analysis. In that role, she was responsible for the integration of analysis and modelling for EIA's long-term domestic and international projections, as published in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook and International Energy Outlook, respectively, as well as short-term forecasts, as published in EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook. In addition, her office produced EIA's country-level analysis and international energy statistics.

    Prior to serving in that role, Angelina led EIA's natural gas analysis. For more than 10 years, she worked in natural gas analysis for EIA and contributed to many of her team’s products, including the Natural Gas Weekly Update and the Effects of LNG Exports on Domestic Energy Markets report. Prior to her leadership of the natural gas team, she was the product manager of EIA's Today in Energy when that publication was launched. Before she worked at EIA, she worked as a senior energy analyst at a private consulting firm.

    Angelina earned her Masters of Business Administration with a finance concentration and Bachelors of Government and Politics from the University of Maryland, College Park.

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    Michael Cohen is Chief US Economist and Head of Oil and Refining in bp’s Strategy and Sustainability group. In this role, he is responsible for short-, medium-, and long-term oil market and US policy analysis that informs bp’s Leadership Team, the bp Energy Outlook, and the Statistical Review. 

    Prior to joining bp in May 2019, Mr. Cohen was Barclays’ Global Head of Commodities Research and was responsible for preparing and delivering differentiated research on commodities markets to Barclays’ global corporate and institutional investor client base.  He worked for a decade in the public sector as an Economist with the US Energy Information Administration, the Department of Energy’s Office of Policy and International Affairs, and as a senior member of the Oil Markets Division at the IEA.  Prior to government service, Mr. Cohen worked on electricity market design for LECG (now Navigant) and as a trading desk analyst for American Electric Power. 

    Mr. Cohen serves as a non-resident fellow at the Colorado School of Mines and frequently lectures on energy, oil markets, and geopolitics at several universities. He graduated Phi Beta Kappa with dual undergraduate degrees in Business and Political Science from The Ohio State University and a Masters in International Economics from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

    Dr. Charles Greer Rossmann is an economist and manager of forecasting and model development at Southern Company. He leads scenario analyses that help the company to understand uncertainty in future fuel prices, environmental pressure, technology cost and performance, and load growth. Southern Company engages a full portfolio of energy resources including nuclear, carbon capture, natural gas, solar, end-use efficiency and storage. Charles and his teams develop customer-centered paths toward net-zero carbon-dioxide emissions. He has been with Southern Company since 1998. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Colorado at Boulder. Prior to joining Southern Company he was Research Scholar at IIASA in Laxenburg, Austria. During 2010 he served as president of the US Association for Energy Economics.

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    Dr. Charles Greer Rossmann is an economist and manager of forecasting and model development at Southern Company. He leads scenario analyses that help the company to understand uncertainty in future fuel prices, environmental pressure, technology cost and performance, and load growth. Southern Company engages a full portfolio of energy resources including nuclear, carbon capture, natural gas, solar, end-use efficiency and storage. Charles and his teams develop customer-centered paths toward net-zero carbon-dioxide emissions. He has been with Southern Company since 1998. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Colorado at Boulder. Prior to joining Southern Company he was Research Scholar at IIASA in Laxenburg, Austria. During 2010 he served as president of the US Association for Energy Economics.

    Mr. Adenwala is a Manager at Energy Ventures Analysis Inc., responsible for providing comprehensive energy markets advisory services to Regulated & Deregulated Electric Utilities, IPPs, Regulatory Agencies, Private Equities, Investment Banks, Hedge Funds, Commodity Traders, Fuel Producers etc. He also manages projects involving short-term and long-term energy forecasting, asset valuations, regulatory impact analysis, policy analysis etc.

    Mr. Adenwala also manages and authors EVA's Monthly Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook and Daily Energy Trader Dashboard: Term Power Outlook.

    Prior to EVA, Mr. Adenwala worked for Tata Consultancy Services, providing technology consulting to GE Energy and Aviation Services.

    Education: MBA from Georgetown University in Washington, DC and a Bachelor of Engineering in Information Technology from Dharmsinh Desai University, India.

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